Modernization: Theories and Facts

Our purpose is to distinguish two theories that relate economic development and democracy and to examine some facts in light of these theories. While ultimately the interesting questions concern the mechanisms that mediate between economic development and the dynamics of political regimes, we must nevertheless identify the facts to be explained before plunging into explanations. Hence, we stick as close as possible to elementary descriptive patterns. We pose the question narrowly, examining exclusively the impact of development, rather than seeking broadly to explain the dynamic of political regimes. Hence, we deliberately ignore factors such as religion, colonial legacy, position in the world system, income distribution, or diffusion, which have been found by others to influence the incidence of democracy. We believe that our question is important in its own right, that it lends itself to divergent answers, and that it raises methodological issues that are not well understood.